Solar Activity and the Risks to Modern Technology

In the middle of our solar system sits a incredibly large nuclear reaction held together by an enormous gravity pull. Many millions of times the mass of the earth, this star emits solar weather that stretches out past the orbit of Pluto. As with weather on earth, the sun's weather can form destructive storms that stretch out from the sun's surface onto the Earth and further into the solar system.

These solar storms are full of particles (protons, electrons, and plasma), radio waves, x-rays and other forms of energy that come from nuclear reactions.

When these storms reach Earth, they can having varying effects on our planet.


What does this have to do with Technology?

Most technology systems, with the exception of the military and some corporate technology, have no built-in resistance to the effects of extreme solar storms.

This means that most of our electronic devices, electric motors and power systems are very vulnerable to solar activity, which may render the devices partially or totally inoperable.


Why Should we be Worried About the Effect on Everyday Technology?

On September 1–2, 1859, the largest recorded geomagnetic storm occurred. Aurorae were seen around the world, most notably over the Caribbean; also noteworthy were those over the Rocky Mountains that were so bright, the glow awoke gold miners, who began preparing breakfast because they thought it was morning. Telegraph systems all over Europe and North America failed.Telegraph pylons threw sparks and telegraph paper spontaneously caught fire.

Some telegraph systems appeared to continue to send and receive messages despite having been disconnected from their power supplies.

This storm was called the Carrington Event and similar strength storms reach the earth every few hundred years.

A storm like the Carrington Event today would cause most of our modern technology to fail within hours. There would be significant electronic damage, power failures, global financial confusion, and disruption to transport and communications.

Without active help and intervention, areas of the earth could experience famines, civil unrest, and wars.



Recent Solar Storms and Increasing Activity Causing Increased Risk

On the 3-5th of August, we had a geomagnetic storm interact with the Earth, causing a G3 storm event to our magnetosphere.

This storm was impressive, but lucky not a threat to most communication and power systems. However, it posed large issues for satellite operators and space operations.



G3 Solar Storm Effects:

Power systems:  voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices. Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems. Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon.

All the definition for the scales of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, and radio blackouts levels are located at the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) website. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/index.html

NOAA also has a website devoted to monitoring solar storm activity and contains other excellent information on solar activity. http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

This current solar cycle is showing signs of the beginning of a very active period for solar storms and risks to the earth.

This cycle will continue to increase in activity for several years before subsiding into a calmer part of the cycle.


What to do About the Risks of a Solar Storm?

The issue needs to be treated like an natural event, similar to earthquake risks. As with earthquakes on Earth, we have built better buildings, invest in detection and prediction, educating people and designing government polices to deal with such a disaster.

Just with earthquake risk management, solar storms need to be addressed to minimise the harm to our way of life.

Possible improvements to solar flare storm risks:

• More EM shielding in electronics devices
• Better designed power systems and grids.
• Better warning and forecast of solar storms
• Understand the sun and it's dynamics better.
• Education of people on the topic in a meaningful way.
• Government polices on the issue, risks and reactions to events.

Through education of the public, better understanding of the sun and laws requiring built-in protection for important devices and systems, the world can become resistant to this type of event.

We may never be able to remove the risk of solar storms, but we can minimise its harm to our technology driven world.

Technology, Natural Capital and The Natural Revolution

Technology and business have always coexisted in history, with new industries and business concepts connecting with technology and offering beneficial outcomes and new markets. Examples of this in today's business world include the development of the Internet Web 2.0, mass production and international airline carriers. Today, another new market is emerging around the world, called natural capital. It is beginning to pervade the investing landscape with serious talk of climate change business opportunities and ecological responsibilities.

What is Natural Capital?

In economics, capital and capital goods are factors of production used to create goods or services that are not themselves significantly consumed (though they may depreciate) in the production process.

Natural capital is the extension of the economic notion of capital to goods and services relating to the natural environment.

Natural capital is the stock of natural ecosystems that yields a flow of valuable goods or services into the future.


The main resources of the natural capital market in the 21st century are:

• Energy (electricity, fuel)
• Water (clean, grey, waste)
• Waste (sewage, carbon, uranium)
• Recycleable Non Durable Consumption (Paper, ink, light bulbs) 
• Recycleable Durable Consumption (maintenance, repairs)
• Recycleable Human Consumption (packing, food, products)

The combination of technology and natural capital provides the ground work for a new type of economic revolution that will surpass the industrial revolution. Technology is the state of the art of the whole field of practical know-how and tool use. It therefore encompasses all that can be said about arts, crafts, professions, applied sciences, and skills. The natural revolution is coming because the world's industrial technologies are beginning to become unprofitable or inefficient, due to constaints on resources and markets that are caused by environmental and social issues.

The next part looks at the key concepts in the natural revolution and definitions of the ideology.

It compares the ideas of the last 200 years of the industrial revolution to the demands of the evolving natural revolution of the 21st century.

 
Industrial Revolution - the revolution the world needed

The Industrial Revolution was a period in the 18th and 19th centuries when major changes in agriculture, manufacturing, mining, and transport had a profound effect on the socio-economic and cultural conditions of the world.

The onset of the Industrial Revolution marked a major turning point in human history; almost every aspect of daily life was eventually influenced in some way.

Main points of the Industrial Revolution: Increased worker productivity output by 100 fold. Created conditions for a consumerist society. Natural resources were plentiful. (Natural capital) Productivity was measured in part by how many boats you had for fishing; or how many chainsaws you owned for forestry. Human resource capital became a less important part of profits. (e.g. the end of slavery) Technology was a significant factor in the industrial revolution.

Natural Revolution - the revolution the world needs now

The Natural Revolution refers to a hypothetical series of research, development, and technology transfer initiatives, to improve the industrialised or technology driven natural capital production of the world.

The initiatives involved in the development of the Natural Revolution include carbon reduction, waste recycling , and efficient farming practices, to name a few.

Main points of the Natural Revolution: 

• Natural resource productivity will increase by a 100 fold.
• A continuation of a consumerist ideas.
• Natural resources not limitless. (Natural Capital)
• Productivity is now measured by how many fish you have in the sea, not how many boats, and how many trees are in a forest, not how many chainsaws you have.
• Natural capital use must become more efficient (e.g. oil, fresh water, and soil).
• Technology will be a large influence in the natural revolution.

What does this mean for Individuals and Organisations?

For individuals and organisations to adjust to the changing environmental and public concerns, there will be legal requirements and operational efficiency improvements.

Natural Capitalism and technology innovation offers a logical way for people and organisation to reorganise and adapt to these new economic and social changes in our modern society.

A good example of an emerging Natural Capitalist economy and country is the Maldives, where President Mohamed Nasheed is championing climate change awareness, carbon trading and environmental harm minimisation. 

With regard to the threat posed to the very low-lying islands by changes in sea level caused by global warming, in March 2009, President Nasheed pledged to set an example by making the Maldives carbon-neutral within a decade by moving to wind and solar power.

He argued that the cost of the change would be no higher than what the Maldives already spends on energy.

As part of a wider campaign by international environmental NGO 350.org's campaign publicising the threats from climate change and its effects on the Maldives, Nasheed presided over the world’s first underwater cabinet meeting on 17 October 2009, off the island of Girifushi with his ministers meeting underwater in scuba diving gear.

The end result of applying innovative technology and natural capitalism to the world will be the start of the Natural Revolution. The Maldives and other smart countries are moving ahead of the environmental curve and applying natural capital ideas to develop their countries.

Saving on natural capital is good for your organisations' mid and long-term bottom lines. The sooner your organisation starts thinking about natural capital, the less painful it will be in the future. This will be eventually mandated by governments. (carbon trading, environmental laws etc.) Natural capital will become increasing expensive in the future, due to scarcity, environmental impacts and increased population. Technology will play a large influence in the natural revolution.

Individuals, business and organisations have to change the way they operate and by increasing their efficiency with the natural capitalism ideology.

Combining technology and natural capitalism is the best way to accomplish this for a green planet and to kick start the global natural revolution.

Australia's Information Security and Cyber-Warfare

Somewhere in Australia stands a building with a group of federal government information security experts peering at flat screens and being fed reports from various sources. Watching for the next big thing to hit the Australian digital shores - from other governments, criminals, terrorists or crackers.

The Australian Department of Defence also thinks about this topic often. Pondering how other governments or terrorist groups might attack or harm Australia's military IT infrastructure and other related assets.

This has become a worrying reality for other countries and our own, as we have seen recently with the Chinese Google hacking issues, and Australian members of parliament having their websites hacked or defaced.

Can we ever can be safe from cyber attacks or similar quasi military actions?

The answer is yes and no at the same time. Just think about where we are today. Australia is already in a constant state of cyber war - with other governments, military organisations, corporations, individuals and criminals using the Internet constantly searching for information and knowledge they can use against our interests. Both in Australia and elsewhere, it's an intelligence orgy out there! Fraud, espionage and information collecting are important parts of these cyber-actions.

The real potential of our cyber warfare organisations is not being utilised. There is a focus on protecting the military and government sectors, but we need to be proactive and ready to employ everything from EMP devices, secret back-doors in manufactured hardware, and unmanned drones with electronic jamming/eavesdropping equipment.

In summary, we are fighting and surviving a cyberwar, while at the same time it is hard to estimate the potential damage if the cyberwar was to escalate. This is why the answer to the question of Australia's cyberwar preparedness seems to be "yes and no".

Australia needs to increase its cyberwar preparedness, even if Australia seems to be coping with the problem at the moment. Any new technologies and cyberwar developments can rapidly change the IT security landscape here. This would leave Australia vulnerable very quickly, and without time for our cyber security teams to react in an effective manner.

We are living in strange and uncertain times.